FRISCO, Texas – Monday Night Football has a chance to get wild as Cincinnati travels to AT&T Stadium with a 4-8 record trailing them, and seven of those eight losses coming by one possession. The Cowboys are 5-7 and need a third straight victory to keep their postseason hopes alive, especially with the odds heavily against them. Let's dive into how Dallas can pick up their second home win of the season in this week's "Here We Goooo!"
1. Don't just get pressure, get home on Burrow
The Cowboys' defense has found their stride in the pass rush department since Micah Parsons returned to the fold in Week 10, and he'll need to wreck this game if Dallas wants to slow down a Bengals offense that scores nearly 30 points a game. In the four games Parsons has played in his return, he's generated 24 quarterback pressures including a league-best 12 in less than 2.5 seconds.
How does that translate to the Bengals offensive line? Rookie right tackle Amarius Mims has allowed 21 pressures since Week 9, good for around four per game. Parsons lines up on the left side on 77% of his snaps since returning, so he needs to take advantage of that matchup and more importantly, get Joe Burrow to the ground.
Parsons isn't the only Cowboy who has dialed up the heat on opposing quarterbacks though. His speedy counterpart DeMarvion Overshown has generated 15 pressures in the last six weeks, 10 of them in under 2.5 seconds, the most amongst off-ball linebackers in that time span. He's also blitzed the passer on 27.3% of his drop backs since the bye week, which is more than double the amount before then (11.3%). His 28.4% season pressure rate is the second highest among off-ball linebackers this season. Parsons and Overshown have found ways to complement each other in the pass rush department, and they've got a prime opportunity to do so again on Monday night.
And how about some unsung heroes for Dallas' defensive front: Osa Odighizuwa and Carl Lawson. Let's start with Osa, who has 22 pressures in the last five games on 157 pass rushes, the sixth highest rate amongst defensive tackles over that time span. He hadn't reached four pressures in a game this season before Week 9 but has gotten to that mark in four of the last five games.
It may not seem like It because his snaps are significantly lower than the aforementioned Cowboys pass rushers, but Lawson has made an impact when he's on the field. Lawson has registered 22 pressures and four sacks in 268 snaps. It's good to have that depth up front off the edge, especially with DeMarcus Lawrence still working towards a return to the field.
Getting pressure on the quarterback is well and good, but Joe Burrow is also moving in the pocket as well as he has in his career, so the key will be getting sacks, not just pressure. If Dallas can do that, they'll set themselves up with some opportunities on offense.
2. Rico needs to keep the hot hand
Rico Dowdle picked up his first career 100-yard rushing game of his career on Thanksgiving, and Dallas needs to ride that momentum into this game as well. Cowboys running backs have rushed for -81 yards over expected, the fourth worst in the NFL. Against the Giants however, Dowdle had a career high +44 yards over expected and four explosive runs, tied for the most by a Cowboys running back since Week 12 in 2022.
As poor as Cincinnati's defense has been all around, stopping the run (especially on the inside_ has been a strong suit of theirs. They've held opponents to just 3.8 yards per carry on runs inside the tackles, the second-best mark in the NFL. With that in mind, Dowdle has 85 carries on inside runs for 408 yards and a touchdown, good for 4.8 yards per carry. If Dallas' offensive line is able to get similar push like they have up front the last two weeks, then the Cowboys have a great opportunity to establish the run.
Cincinnati suffered a huge blow to their run defense and defense as a whole, as Logan Wilson will miss the rest of the season with a knee injury. He's the Bengals second leading tackler (104) and arguably their best tackler, as he generated a negative expected points added for opponents on 7.2% of his tackles and only missed 7.1% of tackling attempts, the ninth lowest among defenders in the NFL.
Dallas' best avenue to winning this game is by running the ball early and often, stringing together long drives so that Cincinnati's dynamite offense stays off the field as long as possible. The Cowboys have 213 total rushing yards in the last two weeks, the second most they've had in a two game stretch this season and have to strive for a similar performance on Monday.
3. Take the Burrow-Chase connection out of the game
The Joe Burrow to Ja'Marr Chase connection has terrorized opposing defenses since 2018 at LSU. They're a rare NFL QB-WR duo that's played both in college and in the NFL for the same team, much less at this high of a level. In four years together in Cincinnati, they've connected on 314 completions for 4,425 yards and 40 touchdowns. In 2024 alone, Chase has 79 receptions for 1,142 yards and 13 touchdowns, leading the NFL in both categories.
So where is this duo at their best? The answer could be everywhere, but Burrow has found continued success on in-breaking routes, similar to what Dallas faced in the Houston Texans with C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins having a lot of success on similar route concepts. Burrow throws for 9.6 yards per attempt at a 59.9% success rate on in-breaking routes, both top 10 ranks in the NFL this year. And his receivers are helping him out too, as Chase and Tee Higgins are both open north of 50% of the time on their in-breaking targets, meaning they've got at least three yards of separation.
And things don't get any easier on other routes for Dallas either. Burrow has 1,629 yards and 17 touchdowns on throws with 10 or more air yards this season, with 11 of those touchdowns going to Chase this season. It'll be a big test for Dallas' secondary, and especially at the safety level, to ensure that the top isn't being taken off the defense by deep threats like Chase and Higgins.
