FRISCO, Texas – After a heartbreaking loss against the Cincinnati Bengals, the Cowboys head to Carolina looking to get back into the win column and keep their slim, but still existent playoff hopes alive. Dallas beat the Panthers 33-10 last season, but Bryce Young and Carolina have been playing significantly better than a year before. How can the Cowboys pick up on a win on a short week? Let's dive into the numbers in this week's edition of "Here We Goooo:"
1. Lean on Diggs, Bland, Lewis
Panthers quarterback Bryce Young has played some of his best football in the NFL over the last month. In the last three weeks, he's thrown for 752 yards and three touchdowns with just one interception. It hasn't resulted in wins, but those numbers have also come against some of the better defenses in the NFL like the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.
Coming into this week, Young will face Dallas' trio of Trevon Diggs, DaRon Bland, and Jourdan Lewis in what will be their second game sharing the field together this season. Their inaugural game together wasn't ideal, with Joe Burrow throwing for 369 yards and three touchdowns in a 27-20 win over the Cowboys on Monday night. On Sunday though, they won't have to face a receiver with the caliber of Ja'Marr Chase.
Rookie Xavier Legette is Carolina's leading receiver with 39 receptions for 432 yards this season. It's clear that the Panthers want to establish the run first and control the game that way behind Chuba Hubbard, who just eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark on the ground. So with that in mind, the Cowboys secondary will need to make plays when Young does put the ball in the air.
How can they do it? Continuing to play out of nickel personnel with five defensive backs on the field to make things more difficult for Bryce Young to find a receiver. The Cowboys have trotted out defensively in nickel on 82.3% of their snaps since Week 9, the third highest rate in the league. They also played in man coverage on 52.2% of their snaps last week against Cincinnati, the first time they've been over the 50% mark this season. Against man coverage, Young has completed just 48.5% of his passes for five touchdowns and four interceptions.
They'll also need some help from their pass rush to disrupt Young and throw him off his game. Carolina's offensive line has been solid, allowing Young to be sacked just eight times since his return as the starter in Week 8, but Dallas' pass rush has improved mightily. Since Micah Parsons returned in Week 10, they hold the fifth highest pressure rate (39.2%) and the tenth highest pressure to sack conversion rate (23.1%) in the league. The formula is simple: Make Young uncomfortable and let you trio of playmakers in the secondary do the rest.
2. Can Dowdle outperform Hubbard on the ground?
With how the Cowboys' run game offensively started this season, you may have never guessed that this matchup would feature two of the hottest running backs in the NFL. Chuba Hubbard has shouldered a large majority of the workload for Carolina on the ground and will continue to do so with Jonathan Brooks out for the remainder of the season.
Similarly, Dallas has found their lead back in Rico Dowdle, who has carried the ball 40 times for a league-best 243 yards and a touchdown in the last two games. After not being able to generate more than 10 rushing yards over expected in the first 10 games of the season, he generated at least 40 rushing yards over expected against the Giants and the Bengals.
Both Dowdle and Hubbard have opportunities to put up big days on Sunday as well, as the Panthers and Cowboys are ranked as the 31st and 32nd run defenses in the league respectively.
The team that has a better rushing performance on offense will have a major leg up in this game. And that aspect will likely be decided.
Dowdle (51.4%) and Hubbard (49%) have the first- and second-best rushing success rates in the second half of games this season, and whichever one of them can take advantage of a potentially worn-down defense will likely win their team the game.
3. Can Cooper Rush be efficient and play a clean game?
Against a Panthers defense that has left a lot to be desired, Cooper Rush doesn't have to do a lot to move the ball downfield through the air. And that plays perfectly into what Rush excels at: quick, easy reads that doesn't involve a need to push the ball downfield.
Carolina's cornerbacks have lined up in off-coverage on 75.8% of their snaps, the highest percentage in the NFL. On average, they back up 7.2 yards off the line of scrimmage, the 2nd most cushion given in the NFL. That opens up the playbook for quick slants, hitches, outs, etc. to get the ball into playmakers hands and pick up decent yardage to compliment the run game.
Rush has excelled in man coverage compared to zone, averaging the sixth most yards per attempt against man (8) versus the fewest against zone coverage (4.5). All seven of his touchdowns this season have come against man coverage. When the Panthers play man, Rush will have to use his quick release to get the ball out efficiently and most importantly – not turn the ball over.
When the Cowboys face man coverage, look for CeeDee Lamb to potentially have a big game. Against man this year, he's caught 23 passes for 456 yards and five touchdowns. Here's the other part – 230 of those yards are after the catch, and Lamb has a chance to run that number up some more with Carolina's tendency to give opposing receivers a lot of space.
