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FRISCO, Texas — Dire straits. Those are two words that best describe the situation the ĂŰĚŇTV find themselves in heading into their Week 11 matchup against the Houston Texans, a.k.a. "The Battle for Texas" (a.k.a. "The Governor's Cup"), on Monday Night Football at AT&T Stadium, a place where they've yet to win a game in 2024.
With a current record of 3-6 after suffering a fourth consecutive loss last week, again in Arlington, the chances of the Cowboys making the playoffs are slimmer than cigarettes from Virginia.
As it stands, they have just a three percent (3%) chance of making it to the postseason, the worst odds they've seen in four years, having enjoyed a 12-5 record over the past three consecutive seasons. But, for the sake of science and being thorough, let's dive into what would have to happen for them to have a viable shot at bringing the NFL to its knees in turning around such a downtrodden campaign.
After all, there are two other words that can describe the Cowboys in 2024:
Murphy's Law.
With cornerstone players on injured reserve, headlined by the season-ending torn hamstring on All-Pro quarterback Dak Prescott, head coach Mike McCarthy is truly against a concrete wall at the moment, or rather one made of reinforced steel — in diving into the numbers of it all.
*data via Playoffstatus
Odds Are …
As noted, the Cowboys are 3-6 on the season and with eight games remaining, it's not simply about getting back to winning games. Oh no no no, dear friend. This is now about trying to win each and every one of the contests from now through the Week 18 regular season finale which, as Fate would have it, is at AT&T Stadium, where they aren't faring well.
That said, do they need to win all of the final eight?
Mathematically, no, but there is a very clear and definitive Mendoza Line here.
Chance of Making Playoffs, Per Win Tally
- Current status (3-6 record): 3% chance
- Win 5 of the final 8 games (8-9 record): <1% chance
- Win 6 of the final 8 (9-8 record): 11% chance
—————— Mendoza Line ——————
- Win 7 of the final 8 (10-7 record): 66% chance
- Win 8 of the final 8 (11-6 record): 99% chance
If the Cowboys lose to the Texans in Week 11, yes, their odds of making the playoffs drop from three percent (3%) to one percent (1%) but, if they somehow shock the world in primetime, their odds will obviously improve.
Hell, they'd double, but that just means they'll go to a resounding six percent (6%).
Yay?
Enough Is Not Enough
For a realistic chance, they'd have to rattle off at least seven wins in their final eight games, and then still need other teams to stumble or, if they only gain six wins in their last eight, the eleven percent (11%) chance can increase by teams like the Eagles and the Commanders falling flat on their faces in the month of December.
Possible? Sure.
Plausible? For the Eagles, sure. I mean, let's be real here, It happened in 2023. But for the Dan Quinn/Jayden Daniels version of the Commanders? That is honestly less likely.
And since I know you're wondering, because of course you are, I've included a look at where the Cowboys' remaining opponents stand in their campaign for this year's playoffs, based upon their respective record and the strength of their opponents through Week 18:
- Week 11 - Texans: 94%
- Week 12 & Week 18 - Commanders: 86%
- Week 13 - Giants: <1%
- Week 14 - Bengals: 16%
- Week 15 - Panthers: 1%
- Week 16 - Buccaneers: 28%
- Week 17- Eagles: 91%
Sliding the scale to a bit of optimism, let's say the Cowboys take care of the fellow lowly Giants and Panthers, though neither is a guarantee at this point, they'd get two wins, but that does virtually nothing for them in their bracket pursuit, seeing as they'd still have less than a one percent (<1%) chance of making the postseason.
So, for the purposes of this exercise, let's say they also land a win against the Bengals, adding a third win to this mix. Their odds would still be less than one percent (<1%) of playing in the postseason, and that doesn't change if they add a fourth win by stealing one from Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers in Tampa.
Again, as the aforementioned Mendoza Line shows, the Cowboys would need to not only defeat the three other struggling teams on their schedule, but a minimum* of three others who are headed towards being a lock for the playoffs.
All or Nothing
As it stands, only one of their three existing wins is against a quality, playoff-worthy opponent (the Pittsburgh Steelers) and it was Prescott who orchestrated that narrow victory, but he's not running out of that locker room again until 2025, though.
Things aren't getting any better when looking at the injury report, one that features starting left tackle Tyler Guyton and, as of this week, All-Pro starting left guard Tyler Smith — the latter being, hands down, the best and most consistent performer on an otherwise shaky offensive line.
This has already proven to ratchet up the level of difficulty for backup quarterback Cooper Rush and Trey Lance, though Lance's mobility does create the ability to add a spark to an offense that's trapped in a dark closet.
There's also the fact DaRon Bland remains not ready for his return from a season-long foot injury, and the practice windows were not activated for DeMarcus Lawrence or Marshawn Kneeland this week.
So, as the Cowboys go forward into new battles, and with McCarthy doing his best to go out on his shield, if that is to be his fate, it's best to walk into the rest of this season with your eyes wide open.
This is either already a lost season, or a setup to become one of the most historic ... ever ... in NFL history.
Time will tell us all, very soon, which side of that Line it'll fall on.
